Market Updates 16/07/2018

ASX looks to open flat on this Monday’s trading session with SPI currently just down 7 points. The international markets closed higher on Friday with Dow Jones up 0.4%, S & P up 0.1% and Nasdaq closed flat, In Europe, FTSE closed 0.1%, CAC up by 0.4% and DAX up 0.4%. AUDUSD also traded higher at US $0.7421, Gold lost grounds down 0.5% at US $1,241.45 while Iron Ore was flat at US $64.04 a tonne.

This week is looking to be a busy week starting with today’s GDP from China and Retail Sales number due out in US. On Wednesday Fed Chair will be speaking to Congress for a two days discussion. There will be questioned about the economic hit that can be expected from the Trump Administration’s multiple trade battles. Bond traders will be keen to see if the Fed will comment on the US yield curve. The US 2 year to 10 year yield difference just narrowing to 25 basis points in the late afternoon trade in NY on Friday.

On Thursday, Australia jobs data being released with the market expecting 16,600 jobs added in June with unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.4%. Away from the market, all eyes will be focusing on the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. On Saturday, G20 Summit will commence where World Leaders will gather with discussion around the trade war.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Monday:

CNY – GDP Q/Y

USD – Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales m/m

Tuesday:

NZD – CPI q/q

AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks & Average Earnings Index 3m/y

Wednesday:

USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies, Building Permits

GBP – CPI y/y

Thursday:

USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies,

AUDEmployment Change & Unemployment Rate

GBP – Retail Sales m/m

Friday:

CAD – CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m

 

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

Market Updates 9/7/2018

ASX is looking at a positive trading session on Monday with SPI currently up 26 points at 6250. This is on the back of strong end to Wall Street and Europe markets, with Dow Jones up 0.4%, S & P up 0.9% & Nasdaq up 1.3%. In Europe, FTSE up 0.2%, CAC up 0.2% with DAX up by 0.3%.  The major markets all ended stronger despite the escalation of the trade dispute between the US & China.

The bottom line in the US economy continues to be one of the strongest in the developed world, alongside the interest rate differentials and a central bank in tightening mode which is driving the US dollar higher.

AUDUSD is currently trading at us $0.7431 cents, Gold is down 0.2% at US 1255.20 while Iron Ore is up 1.1% trading at US $63.84 a tonne.

Global investors will be carefully seeing how China will response the increased tariff which took place Friday. CPI numbers are also due out in US with market expecting it to remain at 0.2%. For further information please contact our team of FX specialists throughout our 6 offices in Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Monday:

JPY – BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks

Tuesday:

GBP – GDP m/m & Manufacturing Production m/m

Wednesday:

EUR – President Draghi Speaks

Thursday:

CAD – BOC Monetary Policy Report , BOC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate

USD – Crude Oil Inventories, CPI m/m & Core CPI

GBP – Gov Carney Speaks

EUR – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

 Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

Market Updates 2/7/2018

 

ASX is pointing for a positive start to Monday’s trading session with SPI currently up 23 points at 6171. This is on the back of a stronger end to Wall Street and European’s markets with Dow Jones up 0.2%, S & P up 0.1% and Nasdaq up o,1%. In Europe, FTSE up 0.3%, CAC up 0.9% & DAX up 1.1%.

AUDUSD traded higher on Friday currently trading US $0.7404 cents on the back of the lower US dollar across most major currencies.  Gold was also trading higher up 0.4% at US $1,253.17. Iron Ore traded higher up by 0.9% US $65.02 a tonne. Ending the trading higher across most sectors.

There are few majors data releases this week, with GBP PMI due out today, ISM PMI due out in US on Tuesday and in Australia RBA rate announcement with the market expecting no movement from RBA chef. Australia Retail Sales is due out Wednesday with expectation only a 0.3% in the month of June, Trade Balance numbers to be 1.21 billion.

In the US, ADP Non-farm number is due out on Thursday that should give investors some indication to the Non-Farm payroll number on Friday with market expecting 200,000 jobs created in June and Unemployment rate will remain steady at 3.8%. Please contact our offices for further information.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Monday:

GBP – Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday:

USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI

AUD – RBA Rate Statement

GBP – Construction PMI

Wednesday:

AUD – Retail Sales & Trade Balance

GBP – Services PMI

Thursday:

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks

USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

CAD – Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate

Friday:

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMO, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMX Meeting Minutes, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

 

Market Updates 25/06/2018

ASX are set to trade higher today on the back of stronger trading session on Friday, Dow Jones up by 0.5%, S & P up 0.2% and Nasdaq up by 0.3%.

In Europe, Stoxx 50 up by 1.1%, FTSE up 1.7%, CAC up by 1.3% and the DAX up 0.5%.

AUDUSD also rebounded up by 0.8% trading at US $0.7440 on the back of stronger Gold up 0.3% trading at US $1,270.56 an ounce, Iron Ore also traded higher up by 0.7% trading at US $65.28 per tonne. Not too many data releases this week but investors will be looking for the GDP numbers due out in the US on Thursday with market expecting it to be steady at 2.5%.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Wednesday:

USD – CB Consumer Confidence & Cored Durable Goods Orders m/m

NZD – ANZ Business Confidence

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Thursday:

USD – Crude Oil Inventories & Final GDP q/q

NZD – Official Cash Rate & RBNZ Rate Statement

Friday:

GBP – Current Account

CAD – GDP m/m & BOC Business Outlook Survey

 

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

Market Updates 18/06/2018

ASX is shaping for a flat trading session on Monday with investors sidelined of what lies ahead in the trade dispute between US and China, with SPI flat at 6100. Little directions was giving on close of the bell in US, with Dow Jones down 0.3%, S & P down 0.1% & Nasdaq down 0.2%. In Europe, FSTE was up 1.7%, CAC down 0.5% & DAX down 0.7%.

AUDUSD continue to slide on the back of risk averse and strong US dollar last week. At the beginning on last week AUDUSD was above US $0.7600 cents and now trading around US $0.7439.

There’s no local data today and from overseas and puts investors on the sideline with a wait and see view. Investors will look for the speeches  from RBA Gov Lowe, ECB President Draghi, BOJ Gov Kuroda & Fed Chair Powell all on WednesdayOn Thursday, BOE is expecting to keep interest rate on hold at 0.5%.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Tuesday:

EUR  – ECB President Draghi Speaks

AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

USD – Building Permits

Wednesday:

AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks

JPY – BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Thursday:

USD – Crude Oil Inventories

NZD – GDP q/q

CHF – Libor Rate & SNB Press Confidence

GBP – MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary & Official Bank Rate

Friday:

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks

CAD – CPI m/m & Core CPI y/y

 

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

Overnight Market 15/06/2018

AUDUSD took another dive on the back of a stronger than expected Retail Sales number released in the US last night. The market was expecting an increase of 0.4% but in May US retail sales figures rose to 0.8%. Unemployment claims also dropped in the US to 218k in May.

Adding more pressure on AUD with recent interest rise in US to 2% from 1.75%. Local banks are being squeezed by higher borrowing costs with the increase of US Fed’s accelerated interest rates hikes. Some Analysts estimated that the spreads paid by Australian Banks could climbed by close to 40bpts and could pressure the Banks in increasing borrower’s interest rates in the near future.

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

Market Updates 12/06/2018

Welcome back for the Queen’s birthday long weekend – SPI is currently trading up 32 points which will see a positive start to ASX this Tuesday. This is on the back of a positive end to US & major European markets, with Dow Jones up 0.2%, S & P up 0.3% & Nasdaq up 0.3%. In Europe, FSTE 100 up 0.7%, CAC up 0.4% & DAX up 0.6%.

AUDUSD is currently trading at US $0.7608 cents and have traded strongly on the back of last week’s Retail Sales numbers and an increase in the Q1 GDP numbers.  Stronger GDP numbers will provide indications of stronger than expected growth may push the RBA to gradually change its tune in the second half of the year, with improvement in risk appetite to likely keep AUDUSD afloat.

Investors will be looking for further direction when Australia unemployment numbers due out on Thursday with the market expecting 19.2k jobs created in May. US Retail Sales are also due out Thursday evening.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Tuesday:

GBP – Average Earnings Index 3m/y

USD – CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m

Wednesday:

AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

GBP – CPI y/y

USD – PPI  m/m

Thursday:

USD – Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, Retail Sales, Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Press Conference

AUD – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

GBP – Retail Sales m/m

EUR – ECB meeting

Friday:

JPY – Monetary Policy Statement & BOJ Press Conference

 

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

Market Updates 4/6/2018

ASX is set for positive start on Monday with SPI up 34 points to 6029. This is on the back of a strong trading session in US with Dow Jones up 0.9%, S & P up 1.1% and Nasdaq up 1.5%. Europe also had a positive close with FTSE up 0.3%, CAC up 1.2% and DAX up 1%. Global markets has been boosted by a strong US employment numbers on Friday with 223,000 jobs added and unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, the results surpassed the market expectations.

Australia’s largest lender Commonwealth Bank has settled AUSTRAC case for $700m  almost doubling the bank’s earlier estimates of $300m. In a statement released to the ASX this morning CBA said it would pay $702.5 million to settle the matter and agreed to new breaches of the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Act relating to the bank’s risk’s procedures, monitoring and customer due to diligence.

AUDUSD was down trading below US $0.7522 before its rebound to US $0.7567 on the back of non-farm payroll numbers being released on Friday and a stronger Iron Ore price jumping 1.3% to US 66.16 per tonne. Gold is down 0.4% trading around US 1,293.73 per ounce.

Local investors will be watching our GDP numbers due our on Wednesday with the market expecting an increase of 0.8% from previously quarter of 0.4%. RBA is also due to meet on Tuesday but no one is expecting the cash rate to be changed at 1.5%.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Monday:

AUD – Retail Sales m/m

GBP – Construction PMI

Tuesday:

AUD – RBA Rate Statement

GBP – Service PMI

EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks

Wednesday:

USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

AUD – GDP q/q

CAD – Trade Balance

Thursday:

USD – Crude Oil Inventories

AUD – Trade Balance

Friday:

CAD – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

 

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

Market Updates 28/05/2018

ASX is set for a lower start to Monday’s trading session with SPI down 30 points to 6007 on the back of a mixed results in US on Friday.

The Dow Jones down 0.2%, S & P down 0.2% while Nasdaq was up by 0.1%. ASX appears to be heading towards a month end close below 6000 points wiping out earlier month’s gains above 6100 points.

AUDUSD traded stronger earlier last week and has maintained it by trading around US $0.7555 cent. Good news for motorist is that Oil lost 3% so hopefully we will see this pass on at the petrol stations shortly.

Global investors will again be looking for further directions with the all important Non-Farm Payroll & Unemployment numbers due out this Friday in US. The Market is tipping for the US to have created 190,000 jobs with unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.9%.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Tuesday:

JPY – Unemployment Rate

Wednesday:

USD – CB Consumer Confidence,  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & Prelim GDP q/q

NDZ – RBNZ Financial Stability Report & RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks

JPY – BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

Thursday:

CAD – BOC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate

CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

NZD – ANZ Business Confidence

AUD – Private Capital Expenditure q/q

Friday:

USD – Crude Oil Inventories, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change , Unemployment Rate & ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBP – Manufacturing PMI

 

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998

Market Updates 21/05/2018

ASX is pointing for a lower opening with SPI currently down 30 points to 6066 on the back of weakness on Wall Street Friday with Dow Jones flat, S & P down 0.3% and Nasdaq down 0.4%.

The trade talks between US and China has weighted into the US corporate results with investors to pause on further investments. Further concerns between talks with Iran and North Korean with further new sanctions and impact on Iranian oil output and threats on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un calling off his summit talks with President Donald Trump.

AUDUSD remain steady trading at US $0.7527 cents with Gold up by 0.1% trading at US $1,292.60 per ounce. Investors will be looking for directions from talks with US Central Bank Chef Powell & BOE Gov Carney this week.

DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:

Tuesday:

GBP – Inflation Report Hearings

Wednesday:

AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

GBP – CPI y/y

Thursday:

USD – Crude Oil Inventories & FOMC Meeting Minutes

GBP – Retail Sales m/m

EUR – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Friday:

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks & Second Estimate GDP q/q

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m & Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Andrew Law

General Manager

D: 61 2 9993 0795

M: 0411 625 998